India is on track to achieve a major economic milestone, with State Bank of India (SBI) Research projecting that the country will transition into the upper middle-income category by 2030. According to the report, India’s per capita income is expected to reach around ₹3.32 lakh (approximately US$ 4,000) by the end of the decade, aligning with the World Bank’s threshold for upper middle-income economies.

Steady Rise in Income Levels

SBI Research highlighted that India’s income growth has been consistent over the past two decades, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, favourable demographic trends, and policy-driven structural reforms. The report also noted that the scale of India’s economy has expanded rapidly in recent years, enabling the country to cross key GDP milestones at a much faster pace than in earlier periods.

Per capita income has shown a marked improvement, rising from about ₹83,000 (US$ 1,000) in the late 2000s to nearly ₹1.66 lakh (US$ 2,000) by 2019. The report projects that this figure will increase further to around ₹2.49 lakh (US$ 3,000) by 2026, before surpassing the ₹3.32 lakh (US$ 4,000) level by 2030.

Drivers of Growth

The research attributes this upward trajectory to sustained nominal GDP growth, productivity gains, and the gradual structural transformation of the Indian economy. Policy reforms aimed at strengthening economic resilience, boosting investment, and improving efficiency across sectors have also played a key role in supporting long-term growth.

Implications for India’s Development Path

Achieving upper middle-income status would represent a significant step in India’s development journey, signalling rising living standards and higher average income levels. The transition would also reflect the cumulative impact of growth-oriented reforms and underline India’s long-term economic potential.

Summary

SBI Research projects that India will become an upper middle-income country by 2030, with per capita income expected to reach about ₹3.32 lakh (US$ 4,000). The outlook is supported by steady income growth, strong macroeconomic fundamentals, and sustained policy reforms, marking an important milestone in India’s economic development and rising standard of living.

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